Gucci Bag and Luxury Market

Wow it has been a long while since I have blogged. Inflation woes, swings in USD, interest rates have WILD.

I bought Gucci Messenger Bag back in 2022 in Seoul, after tax is 1850 SGD and exchange rate is 1:990 there about.

I read about long queue in Japan due to favorable exchange rates. Suppose I get it in Japan at 1:115, it will be 222k JPY = 1920 SGD. Huh is even more expensive. Now Korea is 2280k KRW it was 2110k KRW.

I should bring it out more often since it’s not an appreciating asset to begin with. Only H bags has high appreciation with time. Who has created a financial model for that?

“

High-end Hermès, maker of the coveted Birkin bag, smashed analysts’ expectations with a 17 per cent revenue growth on a like-for-like basis in the first three months of the year. LVMH ticked up 3 per cent as demand for its fashion and handbags softened and champagne sales fell. At Kering, customer disaffection for Gucci, the group’s biggest brand accounting for half of consolidated sales and two-thirds of profits — led the company to warn profits would fall as much as 45 per cent in the first half of the year. Gucci sales contracted 18 per cent, dragged down by China.

“

Edited from FT article

Kering is unable to gain much market share against the bigger giants. H still the top brand and the secondary market demand has one direction to the sky. Haha.

M1 fibre Ipad vs Off the shelf Ipad

Off the shelf Ipad w cellular 256GB 1,149.60

Assume less 10% will be about 1,034.64

M1 subscribes to 1 Gbps cost upfront $470 monthly $24.13.

Current plan 30.18*24. new plan with ipad (40.27+24.13)*24+470

Current with ipad bought outside 1758.32

New with M1 ipad 2015

Benefit of 1Gbps difference $257 which is same as $10.8*24. So ipad and no ipad?

IPhone Plans

I found out there is corporate plan which is less 20% of the normal plan. Getting a iPhone 13 128 GB after discounts is $98+monthly $54.40 and applecare.

The $68 plan has 30 GB data 300 mins and 300 SMS. Currently I have 50 GB and 100 mins. Both have free caller ID.

Vs. phone at store is $1149 for 128 GB and $1319.

Net saving about $178-198. With 5G wor

Subway Sandwich Cost in Singapore

So I just had Subway Sandwich and looked at the prices. I was wondering what is the marginal cost to me as a consumer to order double of a six inch.

Sandwich	Six Inch	Footlong	Difference	Diff/Six
Chicken Bacon Ranch	7.2	11.3	4.1	0.569
Chicken Ham	5.5	9	3.5	0.636
Chicken Teriyaki	6.6	10.4	3.8	0.576
Cold Cut Trio	5.5	9	3.5	0.636
Egg Mayo	5.5	9	3.5	0.636
Italian BMT	6.6	10.4	3.8	0.576
Meatball Marinara	6.6	10.4	3.8	0.576
Roast Beef	7.4	11.5	4.1	0.554
Roasted Chicken Breast	6.5	10.3	3.8	0.585
Steak and Cheese	7.2	11.4	4.2	0.583
Subway Club	6.6	10.4	3.8	0.576
Subway Melt	7.3	11.4	4.1	0.562
Tuna	5.7	9.2	3.5	0.614
Turkey	5.7	9.2	3.5	0.614
Veggie Delite	4.8	8.3	3.5	0.729
Veggie Patty	7.2	11.3	4.1	0.569

The sandwich price is listed in SGD. I used the difference in the price of six inch vs footlong that is the additional cost to the customer to gain another six inch sandwich of the same type since the bread and sauce has to the same.

I take the percentage of the additional sandwich of the six inch. The percentage = [55.4,72.9]. It seems Roast Beef and the 3 other in green text bring more bang for the buck. The Chicken Ham, Cold Cut Trio and Egg Mayo is least worthwhile, so the incentive to order footlong is lower. 63.6% of the cost of second six inch of the first makes sense as you still able to save 36.4% of it. Assume you are already full and happy with a six inch, the marginal benefit is small.

Another observation is how Subway tries to sell sandwiches with fillings than Veggie Delite. Veggie Delite + Ham  = Chicken Ham is 70cents more. And Veggie Delite + Tuna = 90cents. Hey, one scoop of tuna or egg mayo is charged 120cents. You may have saved 30 cents from that.

Budget 2017 Water Price

pub water bill

https://www.pub.gov.sg/watersupply/waterprice

After hibernating for more than a year, lets breakdown water. I know a molecule of water consist 2 H atoms and 1 O atom, 2 covalent bonds O-H bonds. Water is essential to life thus is important resource for survival.

It has been more than a decade that the price has adjusted (neutral term). Excluding political reason, it could be that PUB has been occupied with ABC Water Program, marketing efforts to conserve usage and forgotten about price mechanism. The trigger most likely a realisation the cost of supplying water has increased. 2061 Water Agreement is going to expire and the low level and unstable level of Linggu Reservoir, where “(u)nder the 1962 Water Agreement with Malaysia, the PUB is entitled to draw 250 million gallons of raw water per day from the Johor River. In turn, PUB is obliged to sell 5 million gallons of treated water per day to Johor” (Today, 2015 http://www.todayonline.com/singapore/singapore-supply-additional-potable-water-johor-after-urgent-request-made). After much discussions and they decide Budget 2017 is the opportunity to break the news. The substantial percentage headline have made some people using System 1 thinking to perceive a huge increase. 30% over 2 years sounds a lot! Singapore government has learned from economics to make transfers to those who need subsidy/help the most and the rest feel the pain.

 

MAS Announcement

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/mas-stuns-market-by-flattening-singapore-dollar-policy-band

http://www.mas.gov.sg/News-and-Publications/Speeches-and-Monetary-Policy-Statements/Monetary-Policy-Statements/2016/MAS-Monetary-Policy-Statement.aspx

A move away from a gradual appreciation of the Singdollar to a zero rate of appreciation would have a direct deflationary effect. USD against SGD has fallen by 0.93% on the first day. This helps to gain some traction from economic growth by having Singapore’s exports will be relatively cheaper but our buying power is weakened. The core inflation will be stable with the oil prices on the downtrend. Growth estimates is positive between 1% to 3%

Leaders of Taiwan and China hold historic meeting – The Economist

Leaders of Taiwan and China hold historic meeting _ The Economist

66 years of cold war between the PRC and ROC in neutral country Singapore has paved way for economic development over geopolitical divides. Trade between the PRC and ROC has quietly grown and ROC is largest partner is PRC at 40% of exports (http://money.cnn.com/2015/11/05/news/china-taiwan-trade-economy/). The different comparative advantage and intra firm relationships in the two straits are exemplified by Acer has its plants in China. These strategic coupling has improved ties economically.

Politically, the rising of independence parties in Taiwan that do not support the consensus of “One China” policy is highly contested. Ma and Xi meeting has implications on the opening of foreign policy and stability in the region. Selecting Singapore is a very strategic move to counter immediate reactions from the ground, During Xi’s speech, he mentioned LKY’s words that he will remember. I believe it about balancing co-operation and sovereignty and to create a more harmonious East Asian landscape.

How about Taiwan joining the AIIB? Some background, AIIB is spearheaded by China with the aim to spur economic and financial investments in infrastructure in Asia. It can be seen as an accelerator to other international aid, that is highly regulated, selective and slow. Administering AIIB in Asia and helping Asian countries to uplift their infrastructure
(ports, trains, roads, water), would garner faster improvement in technologies and thus uplift more people of poverty and better livelihoods.

L1R5 and Popular JCs

You can see the profile of Singapore JCs visually. The changing dynamics is notable, especially the rising stars and those up-movers. NYJC is now the 6th JC, beating TJC and AJC as the later starting time, easy accessibility and half u policy has attracted the right talents. SRJC, YJC and TPJC is not highly sought after, as 2 to 5 pointers chose other places.

KL-Singapore High-speed Rail

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/singapore-s-high-speed/1826070.html

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/jurong-residents-abuzz/1830440.html

http://www.straitstimes.com/news/singapore/transport/story/financing-singapore-kl-high-speed-rail-complex-task-analysts-20150507

The two countries meet in Singapore for the annual retreat and have announced the location of the terminus to be at Jurong East. Co-located with JLR (Jurong Lake District) developments, it is a bane and a boon as the interviewees have spoke. Crowds is the cost of the commercial and retail hub. The 2nd CBD in the West is aware of its capacity in terms of human traffic flow. With other modes of transport (MRT, LRT, Buses) added in the near future, it will be developed fairly quickly. Real estate prices would go up and noise level too. Jurong East residents have to adapt to the recurring development and construction, as it will not end until 2020s. This reminds me of the construction of NEL, then CCL and also nex shopping mall in Serangoon from 2000 to 2010.

The exact plans have not been finalised, but I believe it has to be partly underground. I would think it will come from the area of 2nd Link, then to Tuas and reach Jurong East. It has to be near the MRT (errr difficult) or future train lines as the current JE station is already very crowded. Something like City Hall/Promenade/Esplanade.

The financing of the construction will involve public and private sectors from both countries. It is not easy to deal with finances from two countries/two currencies/two jurisdictions. The land acquisition act in Singapore is able to acquire the land for the HSR. Malaysia’s is likely to have station on-ground or above ground level.

Kuala Lumpur –> Putrajaya –> Seremban –> Ayer Keroh (Malacca) –> Batu Pahat –> Nusajaya (Johore) –> Jurong East

China Environmental Woes

Watched “Under the Dome” (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6X2uwlQGQM) and triggered me to find out the reality of the air quality.

True enough that PM2.5 is at hazardous level (500 points).

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/fightairpollution/

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2015-02-26/air-pollution-turned-this-chinese-city-into-a-ghost-town